Buruli ulcer disease prevalence in Benin, West Africa: associations with land use/cover and the identification of disease clusters

© 2008 Wagner et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Understanding spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality in the monsoon Southeast Asia

AbstractThe spatio-temporal characteristics of remote sensing are considered to be the primary advantage in environmental studies. With long-term and frequent satellite observations, it is possible to monitor changes in key biophysical attributes such as phenological characteristics, and relate them to climate change by examining their correlations. Although a number of remote sensing methods have been developed to quantify vegetation seasonal cycles using time-series of vegetation indices, there is limited effort to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in the Monsoon Southeast Asia, which is adversely affected by changes in the Asian monsoon climate. In this study, MODIS EVI and TRMM time series data, along with field survey data, were analyzed to quantify phenological patterns and trends in the Monsoon Southeast Asia during 2001–2010 period and assess their relationship with climate change in the region. The results revealed a great regional variability and inter-annual fluctuation in vegetation phenology. The phenological patterns varied spatially across the region and they were strongly correlated with climate variations and land use patterns. The overall phenological trends appeared to shift towards a later and slightly longer growing season up to 14 days from 2001 to 2010. Interestingly, the corresponding rainy season seemed to have started earlier and ended later, resulting in a slightly longer wet season extending up to 7 days, while the total amount of rainfall in the region decreased during the same time period. The phenological shifts and changes in vegetation growth appeared to be associated with climate events such as EL Niño in 2005. Furthermore, rainfall seemed to be the dominant force driving the phenological changes in naturally vegetated areas and rainfed croplands, whereas land use management was the key factor in irrigated agricultural areas

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Net Primary Productivity of Grassland in Inner Mongolia, China

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of grassland is a key variable of terrestrial ecosystems and is an important parameter for characterizing carbon cycles in grassland ecosystems. In this research, the Inner Mongolia grassland NPP was calculated using the Miami Model and the impact of climate change on grassland NPP was subsequently analyzed under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, B2, and A1B scenarios, which are inferred from Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) climate model system. The results showed that: (1) the NPP associated with these three scenarios had a similar distribution in Inner Mongolia: the grassland NPP increased gradually from the western region, with less than 200 g/m2/yr, to the southeast region, with more than 800 g/m2/yr. Precipitation was the main factor determining the grassland NPP; (2) compared with the baseline (1961-1990), there would be an overall increase in grassland NPP during three time periods (2020s: 2011-2040, 2050s: 2041-2070, and 2080s: 2071-2100) under the A2 and B2 scenarios; (3) under the A1B scenario, there will be a decreasing trend at middle-west region during the 2020s and 2050s; while there will be a very significant decrease from the 2050s to 2080s for middle Inner Mongolia; and (4) grassland NPP under the A1B scenario would present the most significant increase among the three scenarios, and would have the least significant increase under the B2 scenario

Urbanization and sustainability under transitional economies:a synthesis for Asian Russia

Spanning a vast territory of approximately 13 million km ^2 , Asian Russia was home to 38 million people in 2016. In an effort to synthesize data and knowledge regarding urbanization and sustainable development in Asian Russia in the context of socioeconomic transformation following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1990, we quantified the spatiotemporal changes of urban dynamics using satellite imagery and explored the interrelationships between urbanization and sustainability. We then developed a sustainability index, complemented with structural equation modeling, for a comprehensive analysis of their dynamics. We chose six case cities, i.e., Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Omsk, Irkutsk, and Khabarovsk, as representatives of large cities to investigate whether large cities are in sync with the region in terms of population dynamics, urbanization, and sustainability. Our major findings include the following. First, Asian Russia experienced enhanced economic growth despite the declining population. Furthermore, our case cities showed a general positive trend for population dynamics and urbanization as all except Irkutsk experienced population increases and all expanded their urban built-up areas, ranging from 13% to 16% from 1990 to 2014. Second, Asian Russia and its three federal districts have improved their sustainability and levels of economic development, environmental conditions, and social development. Although both regional sustainability and economic development experienced a serious dip in the 1990s, environmental conditions and social development continuously improved from 1990 to 2014, with social development particularly improving after 1995. Third, in terms of the relationships between urbanization and sustainability, economic development appeared as an important driver of urbanization, social development, and environmental degradation in Asian Russia, with economic development having a stronger influence on urbanization than on social development or environmental degradation

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

A Waveguide Slot Filtering Antenna With an Embedded Metamaterial Structure

A novel waveguide slot filtering antenna with an embedded metamaterial is presented. This filtering antenna consists of a common waveguide slot antenna with longitudinal slots cut on the top broad wall of its rectangular waveguide and a metamaterial surface embedded in the bottom broad wall. The metasurface replaces the conventional metal plane in the form of a bed of nails. In the operating frequency band, the metasurface works as a perfect electric conductor, so the antenna radiates as the traditional waveguide slot antennas. While in the stopband, the metasurface performs as a perfect magnetic conductor to suppress the propagation of electromagnetic wave in the waveguide cavity, so the interference signal is rejected and a filter function is achieved. To show the design process and verify its feasibility, a filtering antenna prototype working in the C-band and having a stopband in the X-band is designed, fabricated, and tested. A good agreement between simulation and measurement is obtained, demonstrating efficient radiations in the working band and a strong suppression of more than 35 dB in the stopband

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Northern Eurasia, the largest landmass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ~20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate, environmental, and societal systems. More recently, the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies, including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate, environment, and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling across disciplines

Climate and Landscape Factors Associated with Buruli Ulcer Incidence in Victoria, Australia

Background Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over the past 30 years. Although the mode of transmission remains uncertain, the spatial pattern of BU emergence in recent years seems to suggest that there is an environmental niche for M. ulcerans and BU prevalence. Methodology/Principal Findings Network analysis was applied to BU cases in Victoria, Australia, from 1981–2008. Results revealed a non-random spatio-temporal pattern at the regional scale as well as a stable and efficient BU disease network, indicating that deterministic factors influence the occurrence of this disease. Monthly BU incidence reported by locality was analyzed with landscape and climate data using a multilevel Poisson regression approach. The results suggest the highest BU risk areas occur at low elevations with forested land cover, similar to previous studies of BU risk in West Africa. Additionally, climate conditions as far as 1.5 years in advance appear to impact disease incidence. Warmer and wetter conditions 18–19 months prior to case emergence, followed by a dry period approximately 5 months prior to case emergence seem to favor the occurrence of BU. Conclusions/Significance The BU network structure in Victoria, Australia, suggests external environmental factors favor M. ulcerans transmission and, therefore, BU incidence. A unique combination of environmental conditions, including land cover type, temperature and a wet-dry sequence, may produce habitat characteristics that support M. ulcerans transmission and BU prevalence. These findings imply that future BU research efforts on transmission mechanisms should focus on potential vectors/reservoirs found in those environmental niches. Further, this study is the first to quantitatively estimate environmental lag times associated with BU outbreaks, providing insights for future transmission investigations.This project was supported by the World Health Organization and the National Institutes of Health and Fogarty International Center (NIH - R01TW007550). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the Fogarty International Center or the National Institutes of Health. R.W. Merritt is gratefully acknowledged for supporting this research as part of NIH grant R01TW007550

Policy shifts influence the functional changes of the CNH systems on the Mongolian plateau

By applying the concept of the coupled natural and human system (CNH), we compared spatiotemporal changes in livestock (LSK), land cover, and ecosystem production to understand the relative roles that natural and social driving forces have on CNH dynamics on the Mongolia plateau. We used socioeconomic and physical data at prefecture level for Inner Mongolia and Mongolia from 1981 through 2010 to represent changes in net primary productivity (NPP), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), precipitation, annual average temperature, LSK, livestock density (LSKD), land cover change (LCC), gross domestic production (GDP), and population (POP). The ratios such as LSK:NPP, LSKD: EVI, LSKD:albedo, LSK:POP, and LSK:GDP were examined and compared between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to quantify the complex interactions. Substantial differences in LSK, POP, and economic development were found among the biomes and between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. When various indicators for policy shifts—such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) for China, the Third Campaign to Reclaim Abandoned Agriculture Lands (ATAR-3), and the Grain for Green Program for China (GFG)—were added into our SEM, the results showed significant change in the strength of the above relationships. After China joined the WTO, the relationships in Inner Mongolia between LSKD:LCC and LSKD:NPP were immensely strengthened, whereas relationships in NPP:LCC were weakened. In Mongolia, the ATAR-3 program first appeared to be an insignificant policy, but the Collapse of the Soviet Union enhanced the correlation between LSKD:LCC, weakened the connection of LCC:NPP, and did not affect LSKD:NPP. We conclude that human influences on the Mongolian CNH system exceeded those of the biophysical changes, but that the significance varies in time and per biome, as well as between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): Facing the Challenges and Pathways of Global Change in the Twenty-first Century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies codesigned with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts